Wow.
Maybe when it is all over - Super Tuesday - I will complain about what Sen. Hillary cannot do about the war in Iraq since she originally voted for the darn thing. But heck, at least she is smart and knows how to articulate her ideas well.
She will be the next President. And she should pick John Edwards as her running mate.
It looks like her husband, the former President, Bill Clinton, finally got her into some real trouble. Sen. Ted Kennedy came out with his endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama, after being neutral for a time. This will give Obama some help, but I just don't think it will be enough. (read on).
The WallStreet Journal reported today that polls conducted since January show Clinton with a double digit lead in 8 of the 10 most important Super Tuesday states. And guess what? I think the article mentioned that most of those states have a small black/democratic voting population. CNN has a neat election section on their site that also has a primer on delegates etc. I don't think most voters understand that the candidate with the most delegates gets the nomination.
I had a brief email exchange with a contributor to a major news network, who basically denies the race issue here. He was very offended that I stated Sen. Obama got lucky in South Carolina because blacks rallied after Clinton came after him. If you watch the news, it is easy to spot this contributor! I think that there will be a lot of diappointed African-Americans after Super Tuesday and the Democratic Convention. We sure will need a good articulate speaker!
The reality of Sen. Obama's predicament could not have been more revealing than when the story broke about his friend and longtime contributor, Antoin Rezko, was jailed. You can read about his indictment, but let's just say...shady, shady...shady.. shame on you Obama!! shame on you!! And did I mention that Rezko is Syrian? No, I am not saying that Obama is a closet Muslim, but this connection with this Rezko nut aint gonna help him...
"change gonna come...." and it will come on Super Tuesday...
The Chicago Tribune has a series of articles on this Rezko guy..there is even a picture of Hillary and Bill with him! She explained the photo op with someone on tv a few days ago I believe. Odd. Very odd.
I printed a copy of the article before dinner and "attempted" to hand it to my wife, but she would not have any of it. I think - like me - she has become completely disillusioned by his candidacy and now we are watching something that could have been quite interesting (and grand for some) disintegrate. What you have here is a candidate who talked about uniting the country, someone who played the race card; talked about changing Washington, making tough choices and in most cases, has either done the opposite or nothing at all.
His real estate transactions with Rezko in the midst of the worst mortgage crisis ever - which has literally destroyed millions homeownership dreams (especially minorities) because of foreclosures - will make him look very bad. Maybe. Maybe not.
What will Obama do after Hillary wins? Could he find himself caught up in legal troubles down the road? Will the establishment abandon him, distanced themselves from him if the Rezko thing blows up?
On a lighter note, after President Bush gave his State of the Union speech, CNN's Anderson Cooper interviewed Sen. Obama and asked about the support that Sen. Clinton is getting from her husband. At one point, Sen. Obama said, "[they] are making factual statements that are inaccurate..." Remember Bill with the, "well that depends on what is is.." ? Well, I am not sure if Obama was using legalspeak or rhetoric or what, but I never knew that factual statements could be inaccurate. Maybe it's me. I don't know.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Sunday, January 27, 2008
PRIMARily Getting Sick..
My wife and I watched the results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary come in. We also talked a good bit about the GOP primaries and laughed about how the candidates - most of whom are millionaires - talk about tax cuts and how the wealthiest Americans don't pay their fair share of taxes should be penalized etc... It would be nice if they admitted how much they were worth. But that would be disastrous. Romney is worth more than $250 million dollars!
We laughed at Sen. McCain when he says, "my friends" eight zillion times in his speeches. Reagan said that phrase better because it was him and genuine. I liked Reagan although when he was in office I was Democrat (oops!) He was grandfatherly....(now I hope by writing this it does not come back to haunt me...
Anyway, when McCain says, "my friends" it sounds so fake...It is like someone saying "how are you?" when you know they don't mean it... Sometimes at work people say, "how are you?" and I answer with, "hey, what's up?" They never realize that I never answered their question. Politics is all disingenuous. So at the end of the day, the voter is left with voting for the candidate who is the least unethical.
When my wife and I listen to Sen. Obama we have to make sure that (a) it is well before dinner or (b) well after dinner. It is really getting to a point where we are getting a little sick. We find him very articulate, but that does not make him "the candidate". Sadly, we find that he has morphed into some kind of a preacher-like candidate; it is a cross between MLK or Jesse with a mixture of the rapper, Common.
He may be good at giving speeches when there is some domestic disaster, but when we hear Hillary speak or some of the GOP candidates speak; when we listen to Sen. Edwards speak, (usually after losing), we are hearing substance. I checked out Obama's website and downloaded one of his 52 second clips/talks on healthcare and he said nothing about solutions only the obvious; who has it and who doesn't. This is no different than what we hear when he debates or gives speeches after a primary. Preachers make the flock feel good. And Obama is a master at it. The Democratic establishment is catching on and I think come Super Tuesday the weeding process will be unapologetic to him.
Admittedly, I was captivated by his freshness, the newness of it all. He is a couple of years older than me and I thought that he could bring real change. But as time went on, his ideas were never fully communicated when he spoke. And don't tell me to read them on the website! If they are his ideas, then he should be able to talk about them.
We laughed at Sen. McCain when he says, "my friends" eight zillion times in his speeches. Reagan said that phrase better because it was him and genuine. I liked Reagan although when he was in office I was Democrat (oops!) He was grandfatherly....(now I hope by writing this it does not come back to haunt me...
Anyway, when McCain says, "my friends" it sounds so fake...It is like someone saying "how are you?" when you know they don't mean it... Sometimes at work people say, "how are you?" and I answer with, "hey, what's up?" They never realize that I never answered their question. Politics is all disingenuous. So at the end of the day, the voter is left with voting for the candidate who is the least unethical.
When my wife and I listen to Sen. Obama we have to make sure that (a) it is well before dinner or (b) well after dinner. It is really getting to a point where we are getting a little sick. We find him very articulate, but that does not make him "the candidate". Sadly, we find that he has morphed into some kind of a preacher-like candidate; it is a cross between MLK or Jesse with a mixture of the rapper, Common.
He may be good at giving speeches when there is some domestic disaster, but when we hear Hillary speak or some of the GOP candidates speak; when we listen to Sen. Edwards speak, (usually after losing), we are hearing substance. I checked out Obama's website and downloaded one of his 52 second clips/talks on healthcare and he said nothing about solutions only the obvious; who has it and who doesn't. This is no different than what we hear when he debates or gives speeches after a primary. Preachers make the flock feel good. And Obama is a master at it. The Democratic establishment is catching on and I think come Super Tuesday the weeding process will be unapologetic to him.
Admittedly, I was captivated by his freshness, the newness of it all. He is a couple of years older than me and I thought that he could bring real change. But as time went on, his ideas were never fully communicated when he spoke. And don't tell me to read them on the website! If they are his ideas, then he should be able to talk about them.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Dumb Investors: Dumb Ideas
Sometimes when I am at work, ideas come across my mind that I want to post about. Often times, an incident occurs that is so ridiculously silly or unprecedented (maybe) that deserves mentioning, it cannot be ignored.
But alas, at the end of the day, I drive home and the thought goes away. If it is a late night, I look up at the sky and quickly realize that there are far more worthwhile things that have been written about than the filth I ponder.
I work with some of the most interesting people on the planet, and I wonder if some of them are from another planet!
I was up late reading Joe McGinniss' novel, Never Enough about an investment banker who gets murdered by his wife while living in Hong Kong. In the book, you won't find any investment tips etc., but you will learn how stupid people can be and how greedy folks in our industry are at times.
Something else (cats) woke up me up, so I decided that it would be a good time to post. I will sleep in very late this morning and then head to the gym.
Over the past several days, the stock market has thrown investors around, without giving them any clue as to what direction it will go. As soon as the amateur jumps in to buy, the market falls a couple hundred points; as soon as he sells, it goes up another hundred. The individual investor - who basically does not rely on professional advice - is getting mauled! He is trading in and out of his account, with no regard for commissions, trying to find a way to make up for losses that he incurred a few days ago.
As soon as he hears that the market "closed up 200pts...", he is on the phone or on the internet buying his shares. He has no strategy. And if he tells you that he does, it is based solely on what the market does. Again, he has no strategy. He is an irredeemable gambler.
If greed is good, then volatility is better, I believe.
Why? Because it weeds out the stupid investors, wiping out their wealth so that we can have more efficiency in prices within the market. I am glad that millions of people are losing millions and billions of dollars. Why? Because they do not have discipline, nor do they want to learn the fundamental laws of investing. Instead, they sell when the market is tanking and rush to buy when the Dow is trading up 300 points!
I know what I am talking about here, because I see and hear it all day long.
I imagine when most Americans get their rebate checks in a few months, they will be happy to buy their penny stocks, hoping for some miraculous run-up - "a 1000% return overnight" so they can brag to their buddies at the local pub. Maybe. Probably not.
But alas, at the end of the day, I drive home and the thought goes away. If it is a late night, I look up at the sky and quickly realize that there are far more worthwhile things that have been written about than the filth I ponder.
I work with some of the most interesting people on the planet, and I wonder if some of them are from another planet!
I was up late reading Joe McGinniss' novel, Never Enough about an investment banker who gets murdered by his wife while living in Hong Kong. In the book, you won't find any investment tips etc., but you will learn how stupid people can be and how greedy folks in our industry are at times.
Something else (cats) woke up me up, so I decided that it would be a good time to post. I will sleep in very late this morning and then head to the gym.
Over the past several days, the stock market has thrown investors around, without giving them any clue as to what direction it will go. As soon as the amateur jumps in to buy, the market falls a couple hundred points; as soon as he sells, it goes up another hundred. The individual investor - who basically does not rely on professional advice - is getting mauled! He is trading in and out of his account, with no regard for commissions, trying to find a way to make up for losses that he incurred a few days ago.
As soon as he hears that the market "closed up 200pts...", he is on the phone or on the internet buying his shares. He has no strategy. And if he tells you that he does, it is based solely on what the market does. Again, he has no strategy. He is an irredeemable gambler.
If greed is good, then volatility is better, I believe.
Why? Because it weeds out the stupid investors, wiping out their wealth so that we can have more efficiency in prices within the market. I am glad that millions of people are losing millions and billions of dollars. Why? Because they do not have discipline, nor do they want to learn the fundamental laws of investing. Instead, they sell when the market is tanking and rush to buy when the Dow is trading up 300 points!
I know what I am talking about here, because I see and hear it all day long.
I imagine when most Americans get their rebate checks in a few months, they will be happy to buy their penny stocks, hoping for some miraculous run-up - "a 1000% return overnight" so they can brag to their buddies at the local pub. Maybe. Probably not.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Obama Wins If He Plays The Victim..
At the end of the day, everything comes down to race in America.
There is no way around it. We may act as if the issue dies after the Civil Rights Act was passed, and we may act as if race matters are resolved when MLK Day comes, but in the end, race whether publicly or privately is the dominate factor that occupies most Americans' minds nearly every single day. Anyone who disagrees with this is either on drugs or simply in denial.
It is not so much a bad thing that racial issues are still a dominant phenomena in our country. It is just that they are more interesting to me now that we have a black Presidential candidate who has a good chance of winning, if he can continue to be successful at convincing the electorate that he is a victim who is getting beat up by his opponent's (Sen. Clinton) husband.
I got to thinking the other day. And I now realize that it is impossible for Sen. Obama to win on his own.
He really needs the help of the Clintons! If they do not continue to pummel him, making him look like a poor pathetic victim, then he may have to stand on his own and talk about the issues...with some level of intelligence. God forbid!
The fact of the matter is that the former President's obsession with making sure his wife, the senator, wins this race has made Sen. Obama look innocent; he looks like someone who is getting unfairly beaten up.
There is no way around it. We may act as if the issue dies after the Civil Rights Act was passed, and we may act as if race matters are resolved when MLK Day comes, but in the end, race whether publicly or privately is the dominate factor that occupies most Americans' minds nearly every single day. Anyone who disagrees with this is either on drugs or simply in denial.
It is not so much a bad thing that racial issues are still a dominant phenomena in our country. It is just that they are more interesting to me now that we have a black Presidential candidate who has a good chance of winning, if he can continue to be successful at convincing the electorate that he is a victim who is getting beat up by his opponent's (Sen. Clinton) husband.
I got to thinking the other day. And I now realize that it is impossible for Sen. Obama to win on his own.
He really needs the help of the Clintons! If they do not continue to pummel him, making him look like a poor pathetic victim, then he may have to stand on his own and talk about the issues...with some level of intelligence. God forbid!
The fact of the matter is that the former President's obsession with making sure his wife, the senator, wins this race has made Sen. Obama look innocent; he looks like someone who is getting unfairly beaten up.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Cry Baby Candidates
I feel sorry for Heath Ledger's family, but if he committed suicide, then I find it hard to feel sorry for him.
Men tend to take the easy road out when dealing with problems, particularly depression; the easy road being suicide. Women are most likely the ones piling into therapists' offices or talking amongst themselves trying to sort things out. Men are cowards. We really are. That's my "two cents" on the Ledger thing.
The Democratic Debate in South Carolina was quite interesting. It is sad because you have two of the most sensitive people in the country - one based on race and one on gender, fighting, while the smartest candidate - John Edwards -was nearly screaming for attention. At one point, he reminded "the children" that their bickering would not get health care for people or solve other problems.
I felt that Sen. Obama had an obligation to directly answer the question as to why he answered "present" to over 100 votes while as senator for the state of Illinois. And the fact that he did not answer, makes me feel uncomfortable. Will he be as evasive if he were to become President?
Obama does not seem comfortable with clarity while debating. He lacks detail in his responses and I think the public - the voters - should be very careful not to give into the allure of his charisma and focus more on his credentials.
Sen. Clinton could have maintained what I would described as a stellar performance had she not brought up Obama's "slum landlord" association allegation. Diplomacy can be practiced now. She is lightyears ahead of him and did not need to go there. She is well prepared - always - and never wanting for details when it comes to her arguments.
In the end, the debate cast Obama as "victim" and I cannot see Sen. Clinton winning South Carolina.
Men tend to take the easy road out when dealing with problems, particularly depression; the easy road being suicide. Women are most likely the ones piling into therapists' offices or talking amongst themselves trying to sort things out. Men are cowards. We really are. That's my "two cents" on the Ledger thing.
The Democratic Debate in South Carolina was quite interesting. It is sad because you have two of the most sensitive people in the country - one based on race and one on gender, fighting, while the smartest candidate - John Edwards -was nearly screaming for attention. At one point, he reminded "the children" that their bickering would not get health care for people or solve other problems.
I felt that Sen. Obama had an obligation to directly answer the question as to why he answered "present" to over 100 votes while as senator for the state of Illinois. And the fact that he did not answer, makes me feel uncomfortable. Will he be as evasive if he were to become President?
Obama does not seem comfortable with clarity while debating. He lacks detail in his responses and I think the public - the voters - should be very careful not to give into the allure of his charisma and focus more on his credentials.
Sen. Clinton could have maintained what I would described as a stellar performance had she not brought up Obama's "slum landlord" association allegation. Diplomacy can be practiced now. She is lightyears ahead of him and did not need to go there. She is well prepared - always - and never wanting for details when it comes to her arguments.
In the end, the debate cast Obama as "victim" and I cannot see Sen. Clinton winning South Carolina.
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