Sunday, April 27, 2008

Sen. Clinton's Narrative Myth: The Result of Obssessed Ambition

I know that many voters are having trouble understanding the delegate math, or "delegate calculus" as some pundits like to call it. But a strange thing has happened since the Pennsylvania Primary. Clinton's narrative has morphed ever more into myth.

Sen. Clinton won this primary by 10pts, even though weeks before the primary she was ahead by over 20pts. She argued that Sen. Obama can’t "seal the deal" but she cannot explain why she squandered a 20pt lead and nearly lost a state where she has so many ties.

Sen. Clinton seems to have forgotten basic math, especially when it comes to adding.

The DNC decided not to seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan because they moved up their primaries. These states, violated the very rules that they agreed to have the DNC impose if a state were to breach. Somehow, Mrs. Clinton thinks that, in her calculations, she is ahead in the popular vote. (this could possibly be true if you count FL and MI).

The DNC Chairman, Howard Dean, said that he will not change the rules at the end of the game. Florida and Michigan, sure, are swing states, but that does not make them more important than other states, he said. Case closed.

So what’s Sen. Clinton’s angle here? Why is she spinning that she has more votes?

Mrs. Clinton is trying to convince voters (and the superdelegates!) that she is more credible, because of the "higher amount of votes she has" in her calculations...which is no calculation... The superdelegates know that she doesn’t have more popular votes; she knows it; Sen. Obama knows it, but as always, she is playing some voters for a fool, thinking that they have forgotten that FL and MI are not included - and will not be - in the calculation.

I think she has given in to her own myth. And this is the result of an obsessed ambition. Perhaps she thinks that she can convince voters that FL and MI are being counted, much like she convinced the voters in Ohio that they really did lose jobs because of NAFTA without admitting that she supported the legislation with enthusiasm.

It seems to me that Sen. Clinton is addicted to her own myth.

She simply cannot get away from twisting the truth. We know she cannot provide health care for every American; we know she did not dodge sniper fire in Bosnia and we know that Chelsea was not in New York on 9/11. Sen. Clinton said that she negotiated open borders in Macedonia to fleeing Kosovar refugees. But the border was opened a day before she arrived! And now, she expects the voters to believe that somehow Florida and Michigan are counted in the primary math here.

Here is some math from RealClear Politics that is simple and needs no re-interpretation. I hope she can figure it out.

1. Total Delegates Obama +135
2. Total Pledged Delegates Obama +156
3. Popular Vote Obama +1.7 percentage pts
4. North Carolina (Polls) Obama +15.5
5. Indiana (Polls) Obama +3.0

RCP Avg

Democratic Nomination Obama 48.8%
Clinton 42.2%

Sen. Clinton is a lawyer, so I suspect, at this stage of the primary, she knows what the phrase,
"compelling argument" means.

No comments: